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What is the 10 am Drop in Crypto?
The 10am drop refers to a recurring intraday pattern where major crypto assets like Bitcoin see sudden selling pressure around 10 am US Eastern Time, often shortly after US markets open.
It is trending on X(formerly twitter) because traders noticed the pattern weaken or disappear on certain recent days, triggering speculation about institutional behavior.
The conversation intensified after a US lawsuit involving Jane Street Capital resurfaced older claims of coordinated institutional selling. The case, filed by the bankruptcy estate of Terraform Labs, alleges improper trading behavior during the 2022 Terra collapse.
While there is no proven link between Jane Street and daily crypto price moves, the lawsuit’s timing and recent deviations from the usual 10 am price drop have made the pattern highly visible again.
What is Jane Street Capital and what do they do?
Jane Street Capital is a large American proprietary trading and quantitative investment firm based in New York City. Founded in 1999, it specialises in high-frequency trading and market-making across global financial markets, including stocks, bonds, ETFs, commodities and crypto.
The firm uses sophisticated algorithms to provide liquidity and execute trades at high speed. It operates globally with offices in markets like Singapore, London and Hong Kong.
Why is Jane Street Capital in the spotlight?
The primary reason Jane Street’s name resurfaces in discussions about the 10 am Bitcoin drop is its association with a past market crisis, not new evidence. During the 2022 collapse of the Terra ecosystem, extreme volatility led to heavy scrutiny of large trading firms active at the time. But in February 2026, Terraform Labs, the team behind Terra, filed a lawsuit against Jane Street Capital in the US federal court.
Jane Street Capital US lawsuit explained
In February 2026, the bankruptcy estate of Terraform Labs filed a civil lawsuit in U.S. federal court in Manhattan (Southern District of New York) against Jane Street.
The complaint alleges that Jane Street used non-public, confidential information from Terraform insiders to trade ahead of major liquidity decisions during the collapse of TerraUSD (UST) and its sister token LUNA in May 2022.
The specific claim was that Jane Street positioned large trades based on advance insight into liquidity changes that weren’t yet public, generating profits while other investors suffered losses.
What is the current status of the lawsuit?
The case is ongoing and in the early civil litigation stage.
The complaint has been filed and made public, but there has been no court judgment yet. Jane Street denies the allegations, calling them unfounded and an attempt to recover losses from the Terra collapse. The matter will proceed through the legal process in U.S. federal court.
Is Jane Street Connected to Bitcoin?
Yes, Jane Street is connected to Bitcoin through its role as a market maker and liquidity provider. The firm operates across global markets including equities, ETFs, futures, and digital asset venues, where it provides liquidity by continuously quoting buy and sell prices.
Jane Street & Bitcoin: Jane Street is an authorized participant (AP) for spot Bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock’s IBIT. So the firm engages in large-scale hedging and liquidity provision that can influence short-term spot Bitcoin flows. These mechanics create a “grey window” where Jane Street can hedge using futures or derivatives without immediate spot purchases/sells on public exchanges, muting direct inflow-to-price impact.
Here’s an example to explain this:
- After the US market opens, investors begin buying a spot Bitcoin ETF; A spot Bitcoin ETF gives investors price exposure to Bitcoin without buying or holding Bitcoin directly.
- From the investor’s perspective, demand for Bitcoin exposure increases. However, from the market’s perspective, this demand does not immediately translate into buying Bitcoin on exchanges. Unlike direct Bitcoin purchases, ETF buying first creates a claim on Bitcoin that is fulfilled later by authorized participants, meaning exposure can rise before actual spot demand appears.
Origins of the 10 AM drop Bitcoin Jane Street connection
The accusations that Jane Street manipulates Bitcoin originated as a bottom-up social-media narrative in late 2025. Traders observed a consistent 10 a.m. US Eastern Time price-drop pattern and linking it to the firm’s documented role as a major authorized participant (AP) and market maker for spot Bitcoin ETFs.
| Phase | Time period | What happened | Why it mattered |
| Early pattern observation | Q2 to Q3 2025, prominent from Nov 2025 | Traders across X, Reddit, and trading platforms noticed repeated Bitcoin sell pressure around 9:30 to 10:00 am US Eastern Time. A notable example was a 2.1 percent drop in 18 minutes on Dec 4, 2025 with $171 million in long liquidations. The pattern often capped overnight rallies and faded later in the day, forming repeatable “BART” shapes on charts. | Established the existence of a time based pattern through collective chart watching, without assigning blame to any single actor. |
| Attribution begins | Mid December 2025 | Posts and articles started naming Jane Street directly. ZeroHedge had already been tweeting since July 2025 that Jane Street, as a major Bitcoin ETF AP, was behind the “10 am selloff.” Community logic linked ETF hedging mechanics to observed morning sell pressure. | Shifted the narrative from pattern recognition to suspected agency and intent. |
| Viral escalation | Mid February 2026 | Around Feb 17, 2026, 13F filings showed Jane Street held 20.3 million shares of BlackRock’s IBIT worth about $790 million. Influencers linked ETF accumulation with alleged morning sell pressure, reframing the pattern as possible self dealing rather than coincidence. | Gave the narrative a concrete data point that felt confirmatory to traders. |
| Narrative peak | Feb 23 to 24, 2026 | Headlines around an unrelated Terraform Labs lawsuit coincided with the apparent disappearance of the 10 am drop and a strong Bitcoin rally. Viral threads framed the timing as proof, with claims of an internal algo shutdown spreading rapidly across crypto media. | Cemented belief through timing coincidence, turning speculation into a widely accepted story despite lack of verified evidence. |
Why Crypto Shows Time Based Price Patterns More Clearly Than Stocks
Crypto markets tend to display visible time based patterns more often than traditional stock markets because of how they are structured.
- Bitcoin trades 24×7, so price discovery never pauses and reactions to global events stack continuously.
- High leverage means small moves can trigger forced liquidations, amplifying price action at specific hours.
- Global participation adds another layer, as Asian, European, and US traders hand off liquidity across time zones rather than trading in a single session.
- Finally, liquidity is uneven through the day, with thinner order books at certain hours making prices more sensitive to sudden flows. Together, these factors make recurring intraday patterns more noticeable without requiring coordinated intent.
Why 10 am US Eastern Matters Structurally in Crypto Markets
10 am US eastern time has a structural role in global markets.
This time window aligns with a major transition in global liquidity because it marks the point when the US market has moved from opening volatility to informed positioning.
The US Equity market is a centralized exchange system with fixed trading sessions.
Stocks listed in the US trade on regulated exchanges which only accept orders during official hours. Outside 9:30 am to 4:00 pm US Eastern Time, regular trading is closed.
| Event | US Eastern Time | Indian Standard Time |
| Opening | 9:30 am | 7:00 pm |
| Closing | 4:00 pm | 1:30 am |
Because prices cannot update outside these hours, many traders and funds set their positions the previous night based on global markets, news, and expectations.
- At 7:30 pm IST, it is 10:00 am US Eastern Time, the market has been live for about 30 minutes.
- The Price direction across major US equities, index futures, and related risk assets becomes clearer, helping traders distinguish between opening noise and sustained buying or selling.
For example, if US stocks open lower and remain weak after the first 30 minutes, global desks reassess risk taken earlier in the day.
Crypto positions built during Asian and European hours are reduced to cut exposure. Futures and ETF traders also rebalance once liquidity deepens, while reactions to US pre market data finish materializing.
This creates a natural, recurring adjustment window rather than coordinated selling.
Similar Timing Effects Exist Across Global Markets
Time based price movements are common across financial markets whenever large pools of liquidity transition or benchmarks reset. These moves often look intentional in hindsight, but they usually arise from shared schedules and risk management cycles rather than coordination.
| Market | Event or window | US Eastern Time | Indian Standard Time | What happens | Why volatility increases |
| Foreign exchange | London FX fix | 11:00 am ET | 8:30 pm IST | Major currency benchmarks are set | Large global funds rebalance simultaneously |
| US futures | US market open | 9:30 am ET | 7:00 pm IST | Overnight information is absorbed | Sudden jump in liquidity and participation |
| Crypto | Asian market open | 7:00 pm ET (prev day) | 4:30 am IST | Asia based traders enter | Thinner books amplify early moves |
| Crypto | 10 am adjustment window | 10:00 am ET | 7:30 pm IST | US risk direction becomes clearer | Cross asset rebalancing accelerates |
These examples show that recurring timing effects are a normal outcome of how markets operate.
The 10 am Bitcoin move fits into a well known class of liquidity transition events, making market structure a more credible explanation than manipulation.
Why the 10am Drop Does Not Require a Single Actor
The 10 am Bitcoin sell pressure does not require one firm or group acting in coordination.
- Many trading desks watch the same signals, such as US equity direction, futures basis, volatility, and liquidity conditions, so their responses naturally cluster in time.
- Risk models across funds are often calibrated to similar thresholds, which means reductions in exposure can trigger together. ETF, futures, and spot desks also rebalance independently, each reacting to the same market information rather than to each other.
When these adjustments happen simultaneously, the result can look coordinated, even though each participant is acting separately based on shared inputs, not shared intent.
Is the Accusation on Jane Street and Bitcoin Logically Valid?
Logically, the accusation is correlation dressed as causation. As of today, No on-chain forensic proof, order-book data, or regulatory filing has ever substantiated intent to manipulate.
Jane Street has called the claims “baseless” and “opportunistic.”
How Trader Belief Itself Can Reinforce the 10 am Pattern
Once traders believe a specific time based move exists, their behavior can unintentionally help sustain it.
- Traders notice repeated price drops around the same time and begin to expect the move.
- Some sell earlier to front run the anticipated drop, adding pressure before 10 am.
- Others place stop losses around the same window, which trigger together if prices dip.
- These forced sells accelerate the downward move, making the pattern look stronger.
- Charts and screenshots spread on social media, reinforcing collective belief.
- This belief feeds back into future behavior, allowing the pattern to persist even if the original cause weakens.
In markets, belief can move prices temporarily, even without a single actor directing the move. When enough participants expect the same outcome, their independent actions can align in time and create real price impact. This is how a perceived pattern can sustain itself for a while, even if no one is intentionally causing it.
What Evidence Would Actually Prove Jane Street Manipulated Bitcoin?
To establish that Jane Street manipulated Bitcoin, price patterns or timing alone are not enough. Regulators and courts look for specific forms of proof.
- Proof of intent: There must be evidence that Jane Street deliberately planned to move Bitcoin prices to mislead other market participants.
- Coordinated execution: Trading records would need to show linked or synchronized actions across accounts designed to influence price direction.
- Deceptive trading behavior: Practices such as fake orders, artificial volume, or signals meant to create false market impressions must be demonstrated.
- Non public information misuse: Clear evidence would be required that trades were based on confidential information unavailable to the broader market.
- Regulatory confirmation: A formal finding, enforcement action, or settlement by regulators would be necessary to confirm manipulation.
Without these elements, claims remain suspicion rather than substantiated fact.
Final Thoughts: Is the 10 am Bitcoin Drop Market Manipulation?
Market manipulation refers to deliberate actions taken to distort prices or trading activity in order to mislead other participants for profit.
To meet this standard, there must be clear evidence of intent, coordination, and deceptive conduct, not just repeated price movements or timing patterns.
In the case of the 10 am Bitcoin drop, the behavior observed so far aligns more closely with market structure than manipulation. Time based price moves can emerge naturally when liquidity, trading hours, and risk management decisions converge.
Crucially, there is no public on chain data, order book evidence, or regulatory finding that shows intentional price distortion linked to the 10 am window. Until such proof exists, the pattern remains an observable market phenomenon, not a demonstrated case of manipulation.
The only way to separate real market structure from speculation is to follow data, not narratives. If you want to understand intraday crypto behavior through verifiable metrics, explore the research and explainers on the WazirX blog. We break down ETF flows, liquidity shifts, and trading dynamics in clear, India relevant terms so you can make informed decisions grounded in evidence rather than noise.
And when you are ready and feel confident, download the WazirX blog and start your crypto trading journey with us.
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