Table of Contents
As we enter June 2024, the crypto market remains a focal point for investors, analysts, and enthusiasts. Bitcoin, which has been trying to cross the $70k mark, has shown significant volatility and resilience in the past few months.
In this blog, we have delved into PlanB‘s comprehensive prediction for Bitcoin’s price in June 2024 using various models, historical data, and market indicators.
Bitcoin’s Historical Performance
Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin has experienced multiple market cycles. These cycles are often characterized by a period of rapid price increase (bull market) followed by a sharp decline (bear market).
Key events that influence these cycles include:
- halving events,
- regulatory changes,
- technological advancements, and
- macroeconomic factors.
Halving Events
Bitcoin undergoes a halving approximately every four years, where the reward for mining new blocks is halved. This event decreases the rate at which new Bitcoins are created and is historically associated with significant price increases.
The recent halving happened in April 2024, and the next is expected in 2028. Each halving has historically led to a bull market, which typically starts within a few months after the event. Currently, the crypto community is also expecting a bull run.
Stock-to-Flow Model
The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, popularized by analyst PlanB, predicts Bitcoin’s price based on its scarcity. The model considers the existing stock of Bitcoin (total supply) and the flow (new supply per year). Historically, Bitcoin’s price has closely followed the projections of the S2F model, particularly after halvings. Interesting, right!?
Market Analysis for June 2024
Current Price and Market Sentiment
As of 06 June 2024, Bitcoin’s price hovers around $70,974, according to CoinMarketCap. This marks a significant rise from previous months, indicating a potential new cycle following the recent halving. Market sentiment appears bullish, with investors anticipating further price increases.
Stock-to-Flow Model Projections
The updated S2F model, refitted with five years of new data, maintains power of three in its parameters, suggesting continued validity. According to the model, Bitcoin’s price should see a substantial increase post-halving, potentially reaching new all-time highs. PlanB’s model suggests that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 or higher within this cycle, driven by increased scarcity and market adoption.
Future Predictions
- Last Cycle Prediction: $500,000 per Bitcoin
- Next Cycle Prediction: $4,000,000 per Bitcoin
The model suggests a substantial price increase, especially after halving events, with Bitcoin prices lagging slightly but eventually catching up.
Bitcoin Market Cycle
The recent halving event in 2024 has set the stage for a new bull market. Historical data shows that post-halving periods often lead to significant price increases. The market cycle analysis indicates that Bitcoin is likely entering a new bullish phase, with substantial price appreciation expected in the coming months.
Patience is key, as historical data indicates that the real price pump usually starts after some delay post-halving.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI, a momentum oscillator, measures the speed and change of price movements. As of June 2024, Bitcoin’s RSI stands at 70, indicating strong buying momentum. Bitcoin’s RSI has historically remained above 70 for extended periods during bull markets, sometimes exceeding 80. This suggests that the current uptrend may continue.
Future Expectations
PlanB expects a similar pattern to unfold, with the RSI staying elevated over the next year. The only exception was during the last cycle, which was impacted by the China mining ban, abruptly halting the bull market.
200-Week Moving Average (200W MA)
The 200W MA is a long-term trend indicator that smooths out price data to identify the overall direction. Currently, the 200W MA for Bitcoin is rising, reflecting sustained upward momentum. This trend is consistent with previous post-halving bull markets, where Bitcoin’s price has consistently stayed above this average, signaling strong support levels.
Price Predictions
Based on historical trends, the 200WMA suggests that Bitcoin should reach at least $100,000 soon, potentially within this year.
Realized Price
Current Analysis
- Realized Price: $30,000
- 2-Year Realized Price: $47,000
Both metrics are rising, resembling patterns seen before previous bull markets in 2016 and 2012. The realized price often serves as a support level during market dips.
Historical Support
The light blue line, representing the realized price, has acted as a support level in previous bull markets, such as the dip in April 2020. PlanB expects similar support to hold in the current market, predicting that Bitcoin will not fall below this level.
Realized Return
Market Sentiment
May saw sellers returning to profit, a pattern similar to what occurred in 2016, signaling the start of a bull market. This pattern of red-green-orange in realized returns indicates a healthy market sentiment moving forward.
Predictions and Factors Influencing Bitcoin’s Price in June 2024
Short-Term Predictions
Based on the above indicators and historical trends, Bitcoin’s price is expected to continue its upward trajectory throughout June 2024. The combination of positive market sentiment, a rising 200W MA, and a robust RSI supports this outlook. Short-term targets could see Bitcoin testing the $75,000 to $80,000 range, with potential for higher spikes driven by market euphoria.
Long-Term Outlook
Looking beyond June 2024, the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish. The S2F model suggests that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 or even higher by the end of the current cycle. Factors such as increasing institutional adoption, technological advancements like the Lightning Network, and growing acceptance as a store of value contribute to this optimistic view.
Risks and Considerations
Despite the bullish outlook, several risks could impact Bitcoin’s price trajectory:
- Regulatory Changes: Stricter regulations or adverse legal developments could negatively affect market sentiment and price.
- Technological Risks: Security vulnerabilities or significant technological setbacks could undermine confidence in the network.
- Market Dynamics: Market manipulation, sudden large-scale sell-offs, or macroeconomic factors could lead to increased volatility and potential price drops.
Conclusion
As we navigate through June 2024, Bitcoin’s price prediction leans towards a continuation of the current bullish trend, potentially reaching new highs in the coming months. The convergence of positive market indicators, historical data, and the Stock-to-Flow model supports this outlook. However, investors should remain vigilant and always consider the risks associated with the volatile crypto market.
Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency is not a legal tender and is currently unregulated. Kindly ensure that you undertake sufficient risk assessment when trading cryptocurrencies as they are often subject to high price volatility. The information provided in this section doesn't represent any investment advice or WazirX's official position. WazirX reserves the right in its sole discretion to amend or change this blog post at any time and for any reasons without prior notice.
